Week 5 Survivor Pick Strategy: Making Sense Of The Madness

Week 5 Survivor Pick Strategy: Making Sense Of The Madness

October 5, 2017 – by Tom Federico

Only TeamRankings customizes Week 5 survivor picks for your specific pools.

In this post, we’ll provide data-driven analysis for making your NFL Week 5 survivor pick.

If you’ve looked at the numbers this week, they should strike fear into your heart. Only one team, Pittsburgh, is more than a touchdown favorite.

Based on team win odds and current public picking trends, an average of about 35% of still-alive survivor entries are expected to lose this week. That’s the fourth-highest expected weekly elimination percentage in 4+ years.

Editor’s Note: Our customized survivor picks and analysis tools are available in our NFL Survivor Picks product.

Week 5 Survivor Pick Status

About 35% of still-alive survivor entries were eliminatedAtlanta was the second most popular pick in Week 4 (at 18% popularity), with New England (7%), Dallas (7%), and Jacksonville (3%) also drawing picks. All four of those teams were upset. The most popular and safest pick of the week, Seattle (38% picked), survived a first half scare from Indianapolis and pulled away for a big win, while Green Bay (14% picked) also won comfortably.

Near MissesAround 7% of the public was on Arizona, which again needed last minute heroics to squeak out a win in overtime against San Francisco.

TeamRankings Week 4 Survivor PicksLast week was a great one for our survivor picks, as we advised nearly all of our premium customers to avoid Atlanta and Dallas. Instead, our analysis led us to concentrate most of our pick advice on Seattle (42% of recommended picks, win), Kansas City (27%, win), and Green Bay (19%, win). The Chiefs game ended up being a bit too close for comfort, but at only 4% pick popularity last week, Kansas City offered great value along with relatively good safety.

TR Survivor Picks vs. The WorldOver 95% of our recommended Week 4 picks ended up surviving, compared to only around 65% for the general public. That translated to a big step forward in expected survivor pool profits for our customers. Last week, we did burn some future value with those Chiefs picks, but Atlanta’s high pick popularity and not-especially-high win odds generally made rooting for a Bills upset a better option.

Week 5 Survivor Pick Strategy

When it comes to pick strategy, the best Week 5 survivor picks for you depend not only on each team’s chance to win, but also on the characteristics of each pool you play in. So we always warn people to be careful reading generic survivor pool pick advice.

However, the analysis below should help inform your Week 5 survivor pick strategy. It also provides a taste of our data-driven approach to winning survivor pools. (For our actual recommendations, check out our NFL Survivor Picks.)

Week 5 Survivor Pick Analysis

Keep in mind that shifts in betting odds and pick popularity may have happened since this post was published, and altered the Week 5 landscape. (We update our survivor picks and tools multiple times per day.)

Pittsburgh (vs. Jacksonville)The Steelers are the most popular survivor pick of Week 5, and at 39% picked almost exactly as popular as Seattle was last week. Compared to the alternatives this week, Pittsburgh is the most popular and least risky pick; our models currently give them a 78% chance to win, compared to less than 70% for the next-safest team. However, as 8.5-point favorites, the Steelers are significantly riskier than the Seahawks, who were 12.5 point favorites, were last week. In stomach-churning weeks like this one, it can be easy to consider Pittsburgh as a “lock,” but that’s absolutely not the case. The Steelers were lucky to lose to a 1-3 Chicago team by only six points; they barely beat the Browns in Week 1; and their opponent, Jacksonville, did better against a common opponent (Baltimore). At the same time, Pittsburgh has the second-highest future value of any team in the NFL, with several more attractive situations to pick them in future weeks. So while you gain safety, you are also sacrificing a lot if you follow the crowd and burn the Steelers this week.

Philadelphia (vs. Arizona)There’s a significant increase in survive-the-week risk once you take Pittsburgh out of the picture. According to the betting markets the Eagles are the next-safest team, as 6.5 point favorites. Our models are more pessimistic about their chances, though, giving the Eagles slightly less than 70% win odds. Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia is also the second most popular pick of the week at 26% popularity, a p that has been rising over the course of the week. Placing your full trust in the betting market odds, you do get some additional safety going with the Eagles over other non-Steelers options, but Philly’s much higher pick popularity compared to the alternatives is a big negative. For slightly more risk, you could take a team that’s almost completely unpicked this week, and hope to profit in a big way if Arizona wins.

New England (at Tampa Bay)After Pittsburgh and Philadelphia comes a big drop in popularity for the other options this week, as no other team is drawing more than 7% of the public’s picks. The Patriots, who play on Thursday night, are at 7% popularity, which may seem a bit surprising given that they are on the road, coming off a home upset loss to Carolina, and have already lost as many games (2) as some experts thought they’d lose all season. Still, Vegas odds have New England as the third most likely team to win in Week 5, and our models are a bit more optimistic than the betting markets. The cost? You’re burning a top-caliber team with a lot of future value in exchange for around 70% (or slightly lower) win odds. That’s a tough trade.

New York Giants (vs. LA Chargers)What a week it is when people are picking an 0-4 team in their survivor pools. Yet at 6% picked, the Giants are currently the fourth most popular pick of Week 5. Future value is a big consideration here, as there’s a good chance you’ll never consider using the Giants again this season. They just happen to be a slight favorite playing another winless team in a week with very few good survivor pick options. Believe it or not, the Giants are currently the fourth most likely team to win this week, according to Vegas odds — just keep in mind that still means win odds only in the 60-65% range. There’s also been a bit of line movement against New York recently, so it’s important to watch the betting markets as kickoff time approaches.

Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago)The Vikings are drawing 4% of the public’s picks this week. It’s rare to see a team as risky as Minnesota, which currently has only around 60% win odds according to our models, getting this much attention as a survivor pick this early in the season. But Week 5 is no normal week. With much less future value than Pittsburgh or New England, and modestly less future value than Philadelphia, Minnesota is a legitimate consideration. However, there is currently some uncertainly around our projections for this game, since at post time this game was currently “off the board” at most sports books, presumably until the starting quarterback for the Vikings is announced. So keep a close eye on it.

Together, the five teams above are drawing over 80% of survivor pool entry picks in Week 5, with no less than 10 additional teams drawing at least 1% of the public’s picks.

If you’re willing to follow the numbers and play to win, there are some good options among those less popular teams. Our NFL survivor pool picks product identifies them, and also does all the analysis to determine whether or not picking Pittsburgh makes sense for you this week.

Week 5 Survivor Pick Portfolios

If you’re playing in multiple survivor pools, or playing multiple entries in a survivor pool, your research shouldn’t only involve finding the single best pick of the week.

To maximize your expected profits, you’ll likely want to come up with a portfolio of multiple teams that you spread across your survivor entries. In other words, if you’ve got three survivor pool entries still alive, putting all three entries on the same team might not be your best strategy.

One of the unique features of our NFL Survivor Picks product is that it ps out your optimal pick portfolio each week (e.g. “with your four entries, put two entries on Team X and two entries on Team Y”) and then assigns those pick recommendations on an entry-by-entry basis.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy another week of NFL football and good luck with your Week 5 survivor pick. If you found this post valuable, please consider subscribing to one of our premium products:

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