NFL Week 7 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

NFL Week 7 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

October 18, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

With NFL Week 7 kicking off today, here’s a stats-driven preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

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New England Patriots at Chicago Bears: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Following Week 6, the Patriots are looking like a well-oiled machine again, while the Bears lost a frustrating overtime game to Miami QB Brock Osweiler. New England seems to be hitting its stride on offense, and now ranks fourth in points per game (29.3) after their 43-point shootout win vs. Kansas City. Rookie RB Sony Michel is averaging 105.3 rushing yards per game over the last three contests, while QB Tom Brady now has a healthy receiving corps with WR Julian Edelman back from suspension, and WR Josh Gordon (hamstring) and TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) healing from injuries. However, unlike the matchup vs. the Chiefs defense last week, the Patriots will visit a Bears defense that has graded well in most facets this season, allowing just 19.4 points per game and 3.9 yards per carry (eighth best in the NFL). Chicago’s biggest defensive weakness has been halting the pass (7.2 yards allowed per pass attempt), but they do have the third best sack percentage with the help of star addition Khalil Mack.

For the second straight week, the Patriots defense will face a 2017 first-round pick quarterback, this time Mitchell Trubisky. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a reputation for confusing young quarterbacks, though after a slow start, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes ruined that storyline in the second half of last week’s game. Belichick’s defense can re-use some of their game plan from last week against the Bears, as Chicago head coach Matt Nagy was the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator last year. The Bears running game has generally been effective, despite a disappointing start for RB Jordan Howard, and the team ranks 12th in yards per rush (4.4) and eighth in rushing yards per game (130.0). They’ll likely continue trying to establish the run with Howard and Tarik Cohen to keep the pressure off of Trubisky, who has back-to-back 300-yard games but has also thrown four interceptions in five contests.

Head to Head: The Patriots have won the last four matchups, dating back to 2002. The most recent game was a 51-23 win by the Patriots in 2014 at Foxborough.

Point Spread on Thursday: New England -3.0 (after opening at -2.5)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Like the Patriots vs. Bears matchup, this game features teams with differing strengths. The Saints are coming off a bye, using the off week to prepare for the top defense in the league. The Saints lead the NFL with 36.0 points per game, with Drew Brees having completed an amazing 77.9% of his passes so far this season, and he has yet to throw an interception in five games. Head coach Sean Payton has continued to show a balanced offense, with the Saints ranking only 15th in pass play percentage (61.2%) despite their early success, and went run-heavy in the last game with the return of RB Mark Ingram from suspension. Opposing teams have had major issues throwing on Baltimore, though, as the Ravens now rank No. 1 in opponent completion rate (55.6%), opponent yards per pass attempt (5.3), and sack percentage (10.8%). The Ravens have only allowed more than 14 points in a game once this season, a 34-23 Thursday night loss to Cincinnati in Week 2.

The Ravens offense has usually done enough to complement the defense, but it ranks second worst in yards per rush (3.4) and ninth worst in yards per pass attempt (6.6). QB Joe Flacco will be counted on to move the Ravens offense again this week, as the Saints’ defense has been porous against the pass (8.6 yards allowed per pass attempt) while holding opposing offenses to a league-best 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Baltimore’s offensive stats are still inflated by their 47-point trouncing of Buffalo in Week 1, but the Ravens rank a respectable 12th in points per game (25.5) and ninth in yards (393.0).

Head to Head: The Ravens lead the all-time series 5-1. The most recent result was a 34-27 win by Baltimore in 2014.

Point Spread on Thursday: Baltimore -2.5

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s two Sunday night games in a row for the Chiefs. The NBC network execs apparently can’t get enough of quarterback sensation Patrick Mahomes, who nearly pulled out another come from behind victory at Foxborough last week. The Chiefs return home to the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium ranking first in points per game (35.8) and third in yards per pass (8.7). The passing game isn’t the only story on offense, however, as RB Kareem Hunt has registered a combined 288 yards rushing and 166 yards receiving over the last three games. Cincinnati has allowed 26.3 points per game (10th worst in the league) with few bright spots to speak of on defense; the Bengals have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (ninth worst) but also are just middle of the pack against the pass with 7.0 yards allowed per attempt.

As has been the case every week for Chiefs opponents, the Bengals offense will likely just have to keep up. That task is easier against a struggling and banged up Kansas City defense that has allowed the most yards per game in the NFL (468.2), yielding 5.4 yards per carry and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. QB Andy Dalton may be up to the task, as so far he has made the offense shine, ranking sixth in points per game (29.0). However, Dalton wasn’t spectacular last week vs. Pittsburgh, with only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. RB Joe Mixon has been able to take some of the pressure off of Dalton when he’s been healthy, rushing for 4.7 yards per carry in four games, including a season-best 5.8 yards per carry last week (albeit on only 11 carries). The Bengals will likely try to establish Mixon from the get-go to take advantage of KC’s porous run defense, unless they fall behind early.

Head to Head: Cincinnati has won the last four matchups, with the most recent being a 36-21 win at home in 2015.

Point Spread on Thursday: Kansas City -6.0

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

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