NFL Week 4 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

NFL Week 4 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

September 27, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

With NFL Week 4 kicking off today, here’s a preview of three of this week’s biggest games — including the important Thursday Night matchup.

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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

This week’s opening game could be one of the most important dates of the season for the NFC playoff race. Both the Rams and Vikings come in with bumps and bruises, most notably Vikings CB Trae Waynes and DE Everson Griffen, as well as Rams former Pro Bowl CBs Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. The Vikings have pie on their faces after losing 27-6 at home vs. Buffalo, a game in which they were favored by 16.5 points. One of the Super Bowl favorites coming into the year after signing QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota has averaged a mediocre 6.6 yards per pass attempt so far and struggled to get anything going in the running game, averaging just 66 yards per game relying primarily on Latavius Murray and a now injured Dalvin Cook. It stands to reason that the Vikings likely will continue to pass the ball this week (they currently rank No. 1 in pass play percentage at 72.6%), especially with the Rams banged up in the secondary and failing to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a 4.0% sack rate after three games (5th worst in the NFL).

The Rams offense is off to an even better start than last season, when they averaged 29.9 points per game. They currently rank third with 34.0 points per game, featuring a balanced offense that has the 5th highest running play percentage in the league, thanks in good part to star RB Todd Gurley. Gurley already has 376 yards from scrimmage and five scores, while newcomer WR Brandin Cooks has proven an exciting big-play receiver with 336 receiving yards. In terms of balance, QB Jared Goff has also thrown for 354 yards in consecutive games, and LAR ranks third best in the NFL with 9.1 yards per pass attempt.  Minnesota may have a tough task figuring out how to defend and keep up with LAR’s weapons on a short week, but still, the Vikings have allowed just 5.0 yards per play (5th best) and have the 4th best sack rate in the NFL.

Head to Head: The Vikings have won the last five head-to-head matchups, dating back to 2009.

Point Spread on Thursday afternoon: Rams -7.5 (after opening at -6.5)

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Through three games, the Dolphins are one of the NFL’s three remaining undefeated teams — a surprise start given our preseason expectations. At the same time, the sky is falling in New England for the 1-2 Patriots, at least according to some people. Miami has found success with a similar offensive split that led them to a 10-6 record in 2016, running the ball 47.7% percent of the time (3rd most in the NFL) while getting efficiency from QB Ryan Tannehill (73% completion rate). The defense has also been opportunistic so far, ranking second in takeaways after seven interceptions and one fumble recovery. Miami had only nine interceptions during all of 2017, so it remains to be seen if that pace will sustain itself.

For the Patriots, reigning NFL MVP Tom Brady is coming off one of the worst performances of his career, completing 14-of-26 passes for just 133 yards at Detroit. The Patriots could activate former Browns star wideout Josh Gordon for Week 4, and it seems like New England could desperately use him. Of course, it’s not only the offense that has been a problem for New England. The defense has been embarrassed against the run, allowing 143.3 yards per game (2nd worst in the NFL) while allowing a Lions rusher to pass the 100-yard mark for the first time since November 2013. If nothing else, New England knows what they have to fix as they try to extend their streak of nine straight wins vs. the Dolphins at Foxboro. Then again, the Patriots started 2-2 on their way to finishing 13-3 and making the Super Bowl last year.

Head to Head: Miami won the last matchup in December 2017, handing the Pats their only loss after Week 4, but New England had won 5 of 6 leading up to that game.

Point Spread on Thursday afternoon: New England -7

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s a big AFC North rivalry week, with the Ravens visiting Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. Baltimore rebounded from a Thursday night loss at Cincinnati in Week 2 to beat Denver 27-14 in Week 3, and the Ravens now have the best point differential in the AFC at +46, aided by their 47-3 demolition of the Bills. QB Joe Flacco has been productive through three games with 889 passing yards and 6 TDs vs. 2 INTs, along with a satisfactory 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore has struggled to get anything going in the running game between Alex Collins and Buck Allen, though, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (2nd worst in the NFL). The struggling Steelers defense could be the antidote, as Pittsburgh has allowed 30.0 points per game and ranks in the bottom half of the league in both yards per carry allowed and yards per pass attempt allowed.

Pittsburgh picked up their first win on Monday night at Tampa Bay, holding on for a close victory as QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for more than 300 yards for the third straight week. He needs to produce big numbers out of necessity with the team averaging only 3.9 yards per carry, as star RB Le’Veon Bell continues his holdout. Big Ben’s 8.2 yards per pass attempt ranks among the league leaders, albeit against shoddy defenses recently, and the Steelers have the 5th highest pass play percentage in the NFL. The Ravens are first in the NFL with only 4.7 yards allowed per pass attempt, but they did get exposed by Cincinnati’s wideouts in Week 2, allowing four touchdown passes. Defending Big Ben has also seemed to be a challenge recently for Baltimore, as the Ravens have allowed an average of 32 points over the last three contests vs. Pittsburgh. Most recently, Roethlisberger threw for 506 yards against Baltimore in Week 14 last season.

Head to Head: The Steelers have won the last three matchups, preceded by a streak of four straight wins by Baltimore.

Point Spread on Thursday afternoon: Pittsburgh -3.5

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Making some NFL bets this week? Game winner, point spread, over/under and money line value picks from our algorithmic models are now available for all NFL Week 4 games. See our premium NFL betting picks.

 

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