NFL Week 3 Pick’em Pool Strategy: 5 Picks You Must Consider

NFL Week 3 Pick’em Pool Strategy: 5 Picks You Must Consider

September 19, 2018 – by Tom Federico

Here are five NFL Week 3 picks that need to be on your radar screen if you want to win a prize in your NFL pick’em contest or confidence pool.

Remember: Getting the biggest edge in your NFL pick’em pool requires a precise evaluation of win odds (i.e. how risky each possible pick is) as well as pick popularity (i.e. how much you’ll gain in the standings if you pick a team and it wins). Then, you need to make sure the risk vs. reward profile of your weekly picks is appropriate for your pool.

For a quick primer, see our earlier article on NFL pick’em pool strategy.

Last season, 81% of TeamRankings subscribers reported winning a weekly or season prize in a football pick’em contest using our Football Pool Picks. It’s the only product on the market that customizes weekly pick recommendations for your specific pools. You can also check out our NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.

Week 3 Value Picks For NFL Pick’em And Confidence Pools

This week’s analysis of win odds and pick popularity yields five picks of particular interest for NFL picks contests and confidence pools. Deciding which way you want to go on the five games below should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 3 picks.

Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific pool depend on a number of different strategy factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. To get our recommendations for your pool, please subscribe to our Football Pick’em Picks. 

Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Big Favorite At A Reasonable Price

Minnesota (vs. Buffalo)

Huge upsets can and do happen, and who knows, maybe the Bills will have the game of their season and pull this one off. However, as a pick’em player, any consideration of making a big upset pick has to be weighed against the probability that it will actually happen. The Vikings are 17-point favorites in this game, an incredibly rare case in the NFL, which objectively gives Buffalo about a 1-in-10 chance to pull off a stunner. That’s definitely a better chance than the public is giving the Bills, with 98% of pick’em entries currently on Minnesota. Still, it’s not worth the risk compared to several other options on the board this week (see Value Gambles below).

Fairly Valued Favorite

Miami (vs. Oakland)

After the Dolphins opened the season with two upset victories, one would think that more of the public would be jumping on the Miami bandwagon. So far, that doesn’t seem to be the case. After opening as 3.5-point favorites against the Raiders, the Fins have slipped to -3, crossing a “key” number, so it’s definitely worth watching how the betting line moves for this game as your weekly pick deadline gets closer. Still, as field goal favorites Miami would have around 60% win odds, and less than 60% of the public was picking them in the early going. With a profile like that, picking Oakland as an upset gambit doesn’t make sense compared to other options.

Unpopular Toss-Up Pick

Pittsburgh (at Tampa Bay)

It’s sounds tough to side with a winless team, with some drama going on, on the road, on Monday night, against the surprise 2-0 team of the 2018 season. And after opening as field goal favorites, the Steelers have slid down to being just 1-point favorites in this game. Still, there’s a decent amount of circumstantial evidence that the public is at least slightly overrating the Bucs. Pittsburgh, a team expected to be very good this year, was victimized by an unlikely six turnovers in Week 1, and then an unlikely six TD’s from Patrick Mahomes in Week 2. Tampa Bay, a team not expected to be very good, has beaten a Saints team that looks shakier than expected and a banged-up Eagles squad; don’t forget that the Bucs were only 3-point underdogs against Philly. This game looks like it’s close to a coin flip, but the public likes Tampa Bay. That’s almost always a good opportunity to go the other way.   

Value Gambles

Washington (vs. Green Bay)

As 3-point home underdogs, the Redskins are indeed a risky play, with around 40% win odds. However, nearly 90% of the public is on the Packers in this game, a popularity rate that is more typical for 6- or 7-point favorites. It’s certainly worth watching the news on QB Aaron Rodgers’ health as your pick deadline approaches (or just watch the betting line, which should reflect any relevant public information). But if these numbers hold, Washington at the very least looks like a great value play for weekly prize pools, and if you’re dead set on making a big upset pick this week, this one is appears to be your smartest bet from a risk/reward standpoint.

San Francisco (at Kansas City)Red hot Kansas City and their looking-like-a-stud QB are probably going to win this game; they are 6.5-point favorites, having about 70% win odds. However, the Chiefs are being significantly overrated by the public on the heels of their impressive start. Nearly 95% of pick’em players have the Chiefs in this one, which means KC is only slightly less popular of a pick than Minnesota, which is a 17-point favorite. Furthermore, fading the 2-0 team whose QB just tossed six touchdowns is exactly what being contrarian is all about. This pick is definitely not advised for most pools that only offer end of season prizes, but if you want to maximize your odds to win a weekly prize, San Francisco would give you a huge boost if they pull it off.

Review Of Last Week’s NFL Picks

If you’ve been following the tips in our articles for Week 1 and Week 2, you’ve likely gotten a nice early jump on your opponents in your pool standings. Last week, Chicago delivered a nice value win, and in terms of possible big upset picks, we highlighted Tampa Bay over Philadelphia as the best risk vs. reward gambit.

Just remember that while these articles are meant to provide a taste of our in-depth pool picks analysis, subscribing will give you a much bigger edge. We’ll give you our recommended picks for every game, every week, all customized based on your pool’s size, rules, and other key strategy factors. In the last 24 hours we’ve already received several emails from premium subscribers who won weekly prizes in their NFL pick’em contests after Chicago beat Seattle on Monday night — and from one who didn’t (oh man…):

I feel like crying right now. Its like God is punishing me for paying for a service and then not using it. The service that got me a share of 2 wins last year, I did not play last week. The pickem pool, which last week was worth 1800 dollars, would have been won by me had I played the top option. When u guys ask me if I won I would say no but u might as well chalk one up on ur end as having given away winning advice. Sorry. I needed to rant.

Which Of These NFL Week 3 Picks Should You Make?

Maybe all of them, maybe just some of them. We’re not dodging the question — the reality is, it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.

We built our Football Pick’em Contest Picks to do all this number crunching for you. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it customizes weekly pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge. We use data from national pick’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team. We compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or point spread cover odds, if you’re in a point spread pool) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public. Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool.

 

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook