Here are our favorite home run prop bets for Saturday’s MLB slate.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Jake Cronenworth (+675) | Jurickson Profar (+725)
Dean Kremer is on the mound for the Orioles, and since coming off the IL in late June, not much has changed from his first nine starts of the season. Kremer is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA and has given up six home runs in his last six starts. His 1.83 HR/9 is the second-highest among today’s starters.
Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar aren’t your typical HR hitters, but with Kremer on the mound, it provides an excellent matchup. Their odds being above 600 also offer outstanding value.
When Kremer faces a left-handed hitter, he throws his fastball nearly 45% of the time, giving up an ISO of .240. Profar and Cronenworth have an ISO of above .140 against the fastball, which are eye-popping numbers, but they take advantage of the fastball when they see it.
Of Profar’s 18 HRs, 11 have come off opposing right-handed pitchers, while 10 have also come off the fastball.
Cronenworth’s 13 HRs have come when a right-hander is on the mound. While only three HRs have come off the fastball, nine have come off changeups, cutters, and curveballs, all pitches Kremer uses above 12% of the time against lefties.
Aaron Judge (+215) | Ben Rice (+500)
It’s crazy to think that getting +200 odds is a great value for a Judge HR. There have been times when we have seen his odds below +200 and as low as +150.
Red Sox starter Crawford has typically pitched well against the Yankees, winning both of his starts this year. But this will be the third time he will see this Yankees lineup in two months. Familiarity will set in, and this could be the game where Judge and the Yankees get revenge.
Aaron Judge is the only Yankee to hit an HR off Crawford and has the second-highest HR projection on FantasyPros, trailing only Shohei Ohtani.
Ben Rice smashes right-handed pitching. Five of his six home runs have come against righties, and despite going 0 for 3 against Crawford in his last game, this provides a good matchup for the lefty.
When facing a lefty, Kutter relies heavily on his fastball and cutter, accounting for nearly 70% of his arsenal. Rice’s ISO against those two pitches is .300 against the fastball and .563 against the cutter. Five of his six home runs have also come against those two pitches.
